Fundamentals

The Aerospace Market

What is this?

A Misleading Term

Aerospace means 'Aviation' and 'Military & Defense', but not 'Space'

At least not yet (depending on the market report you look at). For this website, I will concentrate largely on the FAA Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: Tauri Group. Other sources include Honeywell, Deloitte, Bryce, UK DfT, FAA fact sheets, and location specific reports. All of which continue to add data as new findings emerge.

The Size of the Global Space Industry

$335 Billion approx. increasing 2-8% annum

Includes combined satellite services and ground equipment, government space budgets, and global navigation satellite services (GNSS) equipment.

Orbit Launches are necessary

Vertical vs. Horizontal

As of now, only vertical launches for satellite deployment, ISS resupply, and in fact space tourism (Soyuz), are available. However, Virgin Galactic is very quickly solving the complex issues necessary for safe cargo and tourism missions aboard spaceplanes. When this happens, the cost of satellite deployment will drop suddenly as any viable airport can conceivably serve as a spaceport.

Aircraft Demand

Spaceplanes are just the next generation of Airplane

And spaceports are just the next generation of airport. Global aircraft demand is estimated to be 35,155 aircraft over the next 20 years. As route availability transfers into the suborbital and orbital, aircraft production will begin to shift to spaceplane production.

The 'Space' segment of the Aerospace Market

So who is launching what?

Space Payload Customers

Military, Civil, Non-Profit, and Commercial

2016 Countries launching payloads (in order of launches): US (91), China (31), Europe (20), Russia (15), India (12), Japan (7), Canada (3), Argentina (2), and Indonesia, Israel, N. Korea, and Philippines round off the list with 1 launch each. Yes, Europe is considered a country in this list from the FAA.

Space Payloads

Cube Sat pre-fabricated kits by universities, governments, and non-profits

Satellites; commercial communication, remote sensing, and earth observation. Scientific Instruments, tech tests and demonstrations, and cube sats. Commercial orbit launches resulted in $2.5 billion in revenue. Commercial cargo and crew transportation services are expected to significantly increase in the 10-year forecast.

Geographic

What's physically needed?

Existing Facilities

The truth is, it is really expensive to build. Most horizontal spaceports, existing or proposed, are re-purposed airports for a reason: The less infrastructure you have to build, the more likely you have a viable potential site. Concrete runways at minimum 7000' L, and 150' W, are essential. Arizona's Sun Corridor is the location of several viable options.

Rooftops

Tech Talent , cost of living, and quality of life. Aerospace companies are no different than any other tech company in this regard, your talent has to want to live where you are located. A few spaceports have developed in areas not conducive to emerging lifestyle trends only to find themselves embroiled in an uphill battle. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area is home to the most innovative and industry-leading universities that continue to graduate some of the technology market's most sought after degrees.

The Problem with Rooftops

FAA requirements for spaceport and necessary development restraints. Unimpeded airspace is a major concern in this arena. However, this appears to be less of a problem with the designation of Houston Spaceport, the first urban spaceport. Of course, Houston has the Gulf of Mexico for airspace. Arizona also adequately retains vast airspace both regulatory and nonregulatory.

Access to Space

Sunshine, nothing is better for space access. Anyone who has followed rocket launches since the days of the space shuttle can tell you, at any given moment, the launch may be delayed, sometimes for days. Arizona's climate remains the single largest asset to unfettered commercial space activities.

"The best way to predict the future is to create it." - Anonymous